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Balsicas Atlético vs Águilas II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Balsicas Atlético
Balsicas Atlético
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Águilas II
Águilas II
4/19/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 31

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Balsicas Atlético35%
×Draw28%
Águilas II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balsicas Atlético
1.19
Águilas II
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

creates per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.35
Águilas II
1.03

allows per match

Balsicas Atlético
1.41
Águilas II
1.03

finishing

Balsicas Atlético+0.00on par
Águilas II+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balsicas Atlético ↓

Águilas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Balsicas Atlético or draw
63%
Balsicas Atlético or Águilas II
72%
Draw or Águilas II
65%

Winning margin

Balsicas Atlético wins by 2+
15%
Águilas II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Balsicas Atlético 1+ goals
70%
Balsicas Atlético 2+ goals
33%
Balsicas Atlético 3+ goals
12%
Águilas II 1+ goals
70%
Águilas II 2+ goals
34%
Águilas II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Balsicas Atlético (draw refunded)
49%
Águilas II (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balsicas Atlético at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Águilas II away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balsicas Atlético attack 1.35 + Águilas II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.19

Águilas II attack 1.03 + Balsicas Atlético defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Balsicas Atlético scores more
35%
level
28%
Águilas II scores more
37%

Águilas II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Águilas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Balsicas Atlético 1 – 2 Águilas II

Águilas II beat Balsicas Atlético 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 19, 2026.