Balsas 1–1 Timon MA: Result & Stats

Balsas

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Timon MA

6/20/2026

Maranhense - 2 · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Balsas27%

×Draw30%

Timon MA43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BalsasExpected goals in this matchTimon MA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.18

Balsas

0.88

Timon MA

1.18

Timon MA creates 34% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

0.75

creates per match

1.11

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Balsas

0.75

Timon MA

1.11

allows per match

Balsas

1.25

Timon MA

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Balsas+0.00on par

Timon MA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balsas ↓

Timon MA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–115%

0–29%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Balsas or draw

57%

Balsas or Timon MA

70%

Draw or Timon MA

73%

Winning margin

Balsas wins by 2+

9%

Timon MA wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Balsas 1+ goals

59%

Balsas 2+ goals

22%

Balsas 3+ goals

6%

Timon MA 1+ goals

69%

Timon MA 2+ goals

33%

Timon MA 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Balsas (draw refunded)

39%

Timon MA (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balsas at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Timon MA away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balsas attack 0.75 + Timon MA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Timon MA attack 1.11 + Balsas defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Balsas scores more

27%

level

30%

Timon MA scores more

43%

Timon MA at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Timon MA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff