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Balmaseda vs Vitoria — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Balmaseda
Balmaseda
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Vitoria
Vitoria
9/28/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Campo de Fútbol La Baluga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Balmaseda30%
×Draw28%
Vitoria41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balmaseda
1.03
Vitoria
1.25

Vitoria creates 21% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 78 away

creates per match

Balmaseda
1.39
Vitoria
1.37

allows per match

Balmaseda
1.14
Vitoria
0.68

finishing

Balmaseda+0.00on par
Vitoria+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balmaseda ↓

Vitoria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Balmaseda or draw
59%
Balmaseda or Vitoria
72%
Draw or Vitoria
70%

Winning margin

Balmaseda wins by 2+
11%
Vitoria wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Balmaseda 1+ goals
64%
Balmaseda 2+ goals
28%
Balmaseda 3+ goals
9%
Vitoria 1+ goals
71%
Vitoria 2+ goals
36%
Vitoria 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Balmaseda (draw refunded)
42%
Vitoria (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balmaseda at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Vitoria away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.68 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balmaseda attack 1.39 + Vitoria defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.03

Vitoria attack 1.37 + Balmaseda defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Balmaseda scores more
30%
level
28%
Vitoria scores more
41%

Vitoria at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Balmaseda 2–2 Vitoria

Balmaseda and Vitoria drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol La Baluga in Balmaseda.