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Balmaseda vs Tolosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Balmaseda
Balmaseda
CANC
22:00
Tolosa
Tolosa
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 36Campo de Fútbol La Baluga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Balmaseda49%
×Draw25%
Tolosa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balmaseda
1.56
Tolosa
1.05

Balmaseda creates 49% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 48 away

creates per match

Balmaseda
1.39
Tolosa
0.96

allows per match

Balmaseda
1.14
Tolosa
1.73

finishing

Balmaseda+0.00on par
Tolosa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balmaseda ↓

Tolosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Balmaseda or draw
74%
Balmaseda or Tolosa
75%
Draw or Tolosa
51%

Winning margin

Balmaseda wins by 2+
25%
Tolosa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Balmaseda 1+ goals
79%
Balmaseda 2+ goals
46%
Balmaseda 3+ goals
21%
Tolosa 1+ goals
65%
Tolosa 2+ goals
28%
Tolosa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Balmaseda (draw refunded)
66%
Tolosa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balmaseda at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Tolosa away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.73 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balmaseda attack 1.39 + Tolosa defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tolosa attack 0.96 + Balmaseda defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Balmaseda scores more
49%
level
25%
Tolosa scores more
26%

Balmaseda at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Balmaseda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Balmaseda face Tolosa (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 returns with Balmaseda hosting Tolosa. Match starts May 2, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Balmaseda host Tolosa at Campo de Fútbol La Baluga.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.