Balmaseda 2–4 Real Sociedad III: Result & Stats

Balmaseda

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Real Sociedad III

12/5/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Campo de Fútbol La Baluga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Balmaseda39%

×Draw25%

Real Sociedad III36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BalmasedaExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.40

Balmaseda

1.46

Real Sociedad III

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 44 away

1.39

creates per match

1.66

1.14

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Balmaseda

1.39

Real Sociedad III

1.66

allows per match

Balmaseda

1.14

Real Sociedad III

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Balmaseda+0.00on par

Real Sociedad III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balmaseda ↓

Real Sociedad III →

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Balmaseda or draw

64%

Balmaseda or Real Sociedad III

75%

Draw or Real Sociedad III

61%

Winning margin

Balmaseda wins by 2+

18%

Real Sociedad III wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Balmaseda 1+ goals

77%

Balmaseda 2+ goals

43%

Balmaseda 3+ goals

18%

Real Sociedad III 1+ goals

75%

Real Sociedad III 2+ goals

41%

Real Sociedad III 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Balmaseda (draw refunded)

52%

Real Sociedad III (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Balmaseda at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Real Sociedad III away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Balmaseda attack 1.39 + Real Sociedad III defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

Real Sociedad III attack 1.66 + Balmaseda defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Balmaseda scores more

39%

level

25%

Real Sociedad III scores more

36%

Balmaseda at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Balmaseda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Balmaseda 2–4 Real Sociedad III

Real Sociedad III beat Balmaseda 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol La Baluga in Balmaseda.

Balmaseda vs Real Sociedad III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Balmaseda 2–4 Real Sociedad III