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Balmaseda vs Pasaia KE — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Balmaseda
Balmaseda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pasaia KE
Pasaia KE
2/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 27Campo de Fútbol La Baluga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Balmaseda44%
×Draw27%
Pasaia KE29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balmaseda
1.38
Pasaia KE
1.07

Balmaseda creates 29% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 111 away

creates per match

Balmaseda
1.39
Pasaia KE
1.00

allows per match

Balmaseda
1.14
Pasaia KE
1.38

finishing

Balmaseda+0.00on par
Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balmaseda ↓

Pasaia KE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Balmaseda or draw
71%
Balmaseda or Pasaia KE
73%
Draw or Pasaia KE
56%

Winning margin

Balmaseda wins by 2+
21%
Pasaia KE wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Balmaseda 1+ goals
75%
Balmaseda 2+ goals
40%
Balmaseda 3+ goals
16%
Pasaia KE 1+ goals
66%
Pasaia KE 2+ goals
29%
Pasaia KE 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Balmaseda (draw refunded)
60%
Pasaia KE (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balmaseda at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Pasaia KE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balmaseda attack 1.39 + Pasaia KE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Pasaia KE attack 1.00 + Balmaseda defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Balmaseda scores more
44%
level
27%
Pasaia KE scores more
29%

Balmaseda at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Balmaseda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Balmaseda 1–1 Pasaia KE

Balmaseda and Pasaia KE drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol La Baluga in Balmaseda.