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Balmaseda vs JD Somorrostro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Balmaseda
Balmaseda
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
JD Somorrostro
JD Somorrostro
3/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 22Campo de Fútbol La Baluga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Balmaseda42%
×Draw27%
JD Somorrostro31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balmaseda
1.32
JD Somorrostro
1.10

Balmaseda creates 20% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 28 away

creates per match

Balmaseda
1.39
JD Somorrostro
1.07

allows per match

Balmaseda
1.14
JD Somorrostro
1.25

finishing

Balmaseda+0.00on par
JD Somorrostro+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balmaseda ↓

JD Somorrostro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Balmaseda or draw
69%
Balmaseda or JD Somorrostro
73%
Draw or JD Somorrostro
58%

Winning margin

Balmaseda wins by 2+
19%
JD Somorrostro wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Balmaseda 1+ goals
73%
Balmaseda 2+ goals
38%
Balmaseda 3+ goals
15%
JD Somorrostro 1+ goals
67%
JD Somorrostro 2+ goals
30%
JD Somorrostro 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Balmaseda (draw refunded)
57%
JD Somorrostro (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balmaseda at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

JD Somorrostro away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balmaseda attack 1.39 + JD Somorrostro defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

JD Somorrostro attack 1.07 + Balmaseda defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Balmaseda scores more
42%
level
27%
JD Somorrostro scores more
31%

Balmaseda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Balmaseda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Balmaseda 1 – 1 JD Somorrostro

Balmaseda and JD Somorrostro drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol La Baluga in Balmaseda.