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Balmaseda vs Beasain — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Balmaseda
Balmaseda
CANC
00:00
Beasain
Beasain
3/14/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Campo de Fútbol La Baluga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Balmaseda37%
×Draw28%
Beasain35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balmaseda
1.21
Beasain
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 80 away

creates per match

Balmaseda
1.39
Beasain
1.20

allows per match

Balmaseda
1.14
Beasain
1.02

finishing

Balmaseda+0.00on par
Beasain+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balmaseda ↓

Beasain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Balmaseda or draw
65%
Balmaseda or Beasain
72%
Draw or Beasain
63%

Winning margin

Balmaseda wins by 2+
16%
Beasain wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Balmaseda 1+ goals
70%
Balmaseda 2+ goals
34%
Balmaseda 3+ goals
12%
Beasain 1+ goals
69%
Beasain 2+ goals
33%
Beasain 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Balmaseda (draw refunded)
51%
Beasain (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balmaseda at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Beasain away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balmaseda attack 1.39 + Beasain defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.21

Beasain attack 1.20 + Balmaseda defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Balmaseda scores more
37%
level
28%
Beasain scores more
35%

Balmaseda at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Balmaseda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Balmaseda face Beasain (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 returns with Balmaseda hosting Beasain. Match starts March 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Balmaseda host Beasain at Campo de Fútbol La Baluga.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.