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Balmaseda vs Aurrerá Ondarroa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Balmaseda
Balmaseda
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aurrerá Ondarroa
Aurrerá Ondarroa
2/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Campo de Fútbol La Baluga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Balmaseda49%
×Draw26%
Aurrerá Ondarroa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balmaseda
1.52
Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.03

Balmaseda creates 48% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 66 away

creates per match

Balmaseda
1.39
Aurrerá Ondarroa
0.92

allows per match

Balmaseda
1.14
Aurrerá Ondarroa
1.65

finishing

Balmaseda+0.00on par
Aurrerá Ondarroa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balmaseda ↓

Aurrerá Ondarroa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Balmaseda or draw
74%
Balmaseda or Aurrerá Ondarroa
74%
Draw or Aurrerá Ondarroa
51%

Winning margin

Balmaseda wins by 2+
25%
Aurrerá Ondarroa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Balmaseda 1+ goals
78%
Balmaseda 2+ goals
45%
Balmaseda 3+ goals
20%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 1+ goals
64%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 2+ goals
28%
Aurrerá Ondarroa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Balmaseda (draw refunded)
65%
Aurrerá Ondarroa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balmaseda at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 28 matches

Aurrerá Ondarroa away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balmaseda attack 1.39 + Aurrerá Ondarroa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.52

Aurrerá Ondarroa attack 0.92 + Balmaseda defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Balmaseda scores more
49%
level
26%
Aurrerá Ondarroa scores more
26%

Balmaseda at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Balmaseda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Balmaseda 0 – 1 Aurrerá Ondarroa

Aurrerá Ondarroa beat Balmaseda 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on February 10, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol La Baluga in Balmaseda.