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Ballymena United vs Loughgall — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ballymena United
Ballymena United
FT
1 – 2
Loughgall
Loughgall
7/4/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ballymena United51%
×Draw20%
Loughgall29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballymena United
2.33
Loughgall
1.75

Ballymena United creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ballymena United
2.67
Loughgall
2.50

allows per match

Ballymena United
1.00
Loughgall
2.00

finishing

Ballymena United+0.00on par
Loughgall+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballymena United ↓

Loughgall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Ballymena United or draw
71%
Ballymena United or Loughgall
80%
Draw or Loughgall
49%

Winning margin

Ballymena United wins by 2+
31%
Loughgall wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ballymena United 1+ goals
90%
Ballymena United 2+ goals
67%
Ballymena United 3+ goals
41%
Loughgall 1+ goals
83%
Loughgall 2+ goals
52%
Loughgall 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ballymena United (draw refunded)
63%
Loughgall (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballymena United at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Loughgall away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballymena United attack 2.67 + Loughgall defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Loughgall attack 2.50 + Ballymena United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ballymena United scores more
51%
level
20%
Loughgall scores more
29%

Ballymena United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ballymena United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Ballymena
Loughgall
Oran Kearney
Manager: Oran Kearney
Darren Murphy
Manager: Darren Murphy

Friendlies Clubs: Ballymena United 1–2 Loughgall

Loughgall beat Ballymena United 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 4, 2026.