Ballymena United 1–1 Glenavon FC: Result & Stats

Ballymena United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Glenavon FC

4/7/2026

League #408 · Relegation Group - 35Ballymena Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ballymena United53%

×Draw24%

Glenavon FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ballymena UnitedExpected goals in this matchGlenavon FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.05

Ballymena United

1.73

Glenavon FC

1.05

Ballymena United creates 65% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 58 away

1.45

creates per match

1.10

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ballymena United

1.45

Glenavon FC

1.10

allows per match

Ballymena United

1.00

Glenavon FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ballymena United+0.00on par

Glenavon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballymena United ↓

Glenavon FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ballymena United or draw

77%

Ballymena United or Glenavon FC

76%

Draw or Glenavon FC

47%

Winning margin

Ballymena United wins by 2+

29%

Glenavon FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ballymena United 1+ goals

82%

Ballymena United 2+ goals

52%

Ballymena United 3+ goals

25%

Glenavon FC 1+ goals

65%

Glenavon FC 2+ goals

28%

Glenavon FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ballymena United (draw refunded)

70%

Glenavon FC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballymena United at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Glenavon FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballymena United attack 1.45 + Glenavon FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Glenavon FC attack 1.10 + Ballymena United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ballymena United scores more

53%

level

24%

Glenavon FC scores more

23%

Ballymena United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ballymena United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff