Ballymena United 1–1 Carrick Rangers

Ballymena United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Carrick Rangers

D. O'Conchubhair 65'

A. Steele 40'

12/20/2025

League #408 · Round 21Ballymena Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ballymena United36%

×Draw27%

Carrick Rangers36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ballymena UnitedExpected goals in this matchCarrick Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

Ballymena United

1.23

Carrick Rangers

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.33

creates per match

1.25

1.22

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Ballymena United

1.33

Carrick Rangers

1.25

allows per match

Ballymena United

1.22

Carrick Rangers

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ballymena United+0.00on par

Carrick Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballymena United ↓

Carrick Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ballymena United or draw

64%

Ballymena United or Carrick Rangers

73%

Draw or Carrick Rangers

64%

Winning margin

Ballymena United wins by 2+

16%

Carrick Rangers wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ballymena United 1+ goals

71%

Ballymena United 2+ goals

35%

Ballymena United 3+ goals

13%

Carrick Rangers 1+ goals

71%

Carrick Rangers 2+ goals

35%

Carrick Rangers 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ballymena United (draw refunded)

50%

Carrick Rangers (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballymena United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Carrick Rangers away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballymena United attack 1.33 + Carrick Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Carrick Rangers attack 1.25 + Ballymena United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Ballymena United scores more

36%

level

27%

Carrick Rangers scores more

36%

Ballymena United at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Ballymena United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

A. Steele

62'

J. O’Reilly← J. Thompson

65'

70'

71'

74'

90+3'

90+3'

J. Hood← D. O'Conchubhair

Ballymena

Carrick

15

Buchanan-

4

▼

Burns

20

▼

1

9

22

10

12

25

24

14

⚽

16

31

22

8

3

25

21

11

⚽

▼

O'Conchub

1

O'Neill

20

▼

Thompson

5

Toure

Manager: Jim Ervin

62'▲J. O’Reilly←▼J. Thompson

90+3'▲J. Hood←▼D. O'Conchubhair

Ballymena United substitutes

23Breen32Burns6Ali41Hood55Houston17O’Reilly33Taylor

Manager: Stephen Baxter

70'▲S. Clucas←▼K. Cherry

74'▲J. Scott←▼B. Burns

Carrick Rangers substitutes

8Clucas23Glendinning27James29McCawl13Pengelly26Scott7Waide

Match Recap: Ballymena United vs Carrick Rangers

Ballymena United and Carrick Rangers drew 1-1 in League #408 on December 20, 2025.

Goals: A. Steele (40'), D. O'Conchubhair (65').

The match was played at Ballymena Showgrounds in Ballymena.

Ballymena United vs Carrick Rangers — League #408 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ballymena United vs Carrick Rangers