Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ballyfermot United vs Rockmount — FAI Cup 2026

Ballyfermot United
Ballyfermot United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rockmount
Rockmount
D. Nolan 90+3'
T. Caffrey 56'
A. Wasser 41'
5/19/2024FAI CupFAI Cup · 1st RoundBallyfermot Coldcut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ballyfermot United72%
×Draw16%
Rockmount12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballyfermot United
2.67
Rockmount
1.00

Ballyfermot United creates 167% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ballyfermot United
2.00
Rockmount
0.67

allows per match

Ballyfermot United
1.33
Rockmount
3.33

finishing

Ballyfermot United+0.00on par
Rockmount+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 70Under: 3070%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballyfermot United ↓

Rockmount →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Ballyfermot United or draw
88%
Ballyfermot United or Rockmount
84%
Draw or Rockmount
28%

Winning margin

Ballyfermot United wins by 2+
51%
Rockmount wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ballyfermot United 1+ goals
93%
Ballyfermot United 2+ goals
74%
Ballyfermot United 3+ goals
49%
Rockmount 1+ goals
63%
Rockmount 2+ goals
26%
Rockmount 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ballyfermot United (draw refunded)
86%
Rockmount (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballyfermot United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Rockmount away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballyfermot United attack 2.00 + Rockmount defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Rockmount attack 0.67 + Ballyfermot United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Ballyfermot United scores more
72%
level
16%
Rockmount scores more
12%

Ballyfermot United at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Ballyfermot United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
A. Wasser
56'
T. Caffrey
90+3'
D. Nolan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FAI Cup: Ballyfermot United 3–0 Rockmount

Ballyfermot United beat Rockmount 3-0 in FAI Cup on May 19, 2024.

Goals: A. Wasser (41'), T. Caffrey (56'), D. Nolan (90+3').

The match was played at Ballyfermot Coldcut in Clondalkin.