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Ballyclare Comrades vs Ballymena United — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ballyclare Comrades
Ballyclare Comrades
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
I. Rutkowski 85', 49'
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ballyclare Comrades13%
×Draw19%
Ballymena United68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballyclare Comrades
0.83
Ballymena United
2.17

Ballymena United creates 161% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ballyclare Comrades
0.67
Ballymena United
2.00

allows per match

Ballyclare Comrades
2.33
Ballymena United
1.00

finishing

Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par
Ballymena United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballyclare Comrades ↓

Ballymena United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ballyclare Comrades or draw
32%
Ballyclare Comrades or Ballymena United
81%
Draw or Ballymena United
87%

Winning margin

Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+
4%
Ballymena United wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals
56%
Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals
20%
Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals
5%
Ballymena United 1+ goals
89%
Ballymena United 2+ goals
64%
Ballymena United 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)
16%
Ballymena United (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballyclare Comrades at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

Ballymena United away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballyclare Comrades attack 0.67 + Ballymena United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Ballymena United attack 2.00 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ballyclare Comrades scores more
13%
level
19%
Ballymena United scores more
68%

Ballymena United at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ballymena United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
I. Rutkowski
85'
I. Rutkowski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Ballyclare Comrades 0–2 Ballymena United

Ballymena United beat Ballyclare Comrades 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.

Goals: I. Rutkowski (49', 85').