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Ballkani vs Llapi — Superliga 2019

Ballkani
Ballkani
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Llapi
Llapi
11/23/2025SuperligaSuperliga · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Ballkani53%
×Draw24%
Llapi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballkani
1.75
Llapi
1.08

Ballkani creates 62% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 125 away

creates per match

Ballkani
2.07
Llapi
1.28

allows per match

Ballkani
0.88
Llapi
1.44

finishing

Ballkani+0.00on par
Llapi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballkani ↓

Llapi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ballkani or draw
77%
Ballkani or Llapi
76%
Draw or Llapi
47%

Winning margin

Ballkani wins by 2+
29%
Llapi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ballkani 1+ goals
83%
Ballkani 2+ goals
52%
Ballkani 3+ goals
25%
Llapi 1+ goals
66%
Llapi 2+ goals
29%
Llapi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ballkani (draw refunded)
69%
Llapi (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballkani at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.88 · 125 matches

Llapi away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballkani attack 2.07 + Llapi defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.75

Llapi attack 1.28 + Ballkani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ballkani scores more
53%
level
24%
Llapi scores more
23%

Ballkani at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ballkani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ballkani vs Llapi

Llapi beat Ballkani 4-2 in Superliga on November 23, 2025.