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Ballkani vs FC Astana — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Ballkani
Ballkani
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
FC Astana
FC Astana
10/26/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 3Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ballkani60%
×Draw22%
FC Astana18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballkani
1.84
FC Astana
0.88

Ballkani creates 109% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ballkani
1.88
FC Astana
0.87

allows per match

Ballkani
0.88
FC Astana
1.80

finishing

Ballkani+0.00on par
FC Astana+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballkani ↓

FC Astana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ballkani or draw
82%
Ballkani or FC Astana
78%
Draw or FC Astana
40%

Winning margin

Ballkani wins by 2+
35%
FC Astana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ballkani 1+ goals
84%
Ballkani 2+ goals
55%
Ballkani 3+ goals
28%
FC Astana 1+ goals
59%
FC Astana 2+ goals
22%
FC Astana 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ballkani (draw refunded)
77%
FC Astana (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballkani at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

FC Astana away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballkani attack 1.88 + FC Astana defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.84

FC Astana attack 0.87 + Ballkani defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ballkani scores more
60%
level
22%
FC Astana scores more
18%

Ballkani at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ballkani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ballkani vs FC Astana

FC Astana beat Ballkani 2-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri in Pristina.