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Ballkani vs Dukagjini — Cup 2019

Ballkani
Ballkani
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Dukagjini
Dukagjiniadvanced
4/8/2026CupCup · Semi-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ballkani29%
×Draw25%
Dukagjini46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballkani
1.22
Dukagjini
1.61

Dukagjini creates 32% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Ballkani
1.33
Dukagjini
2.56

allows per match

Ballkani
0.67
Dukagjini
1.11

finishing

Ballkani+0.00on par
Dukagjini+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballkani ↓

Dukagjini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ballkani or draw
54%
Ballkani or Dukagjini
75%
Draw or Dukagjini
71%

Winning margin

Ballkani wins by 2+
12%
Dukagjini wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Ballkani 1+ goals
70%
Ballkani 2+ goals
34%
Ballkani 3+ goals
12%
Dukagjini 1+ goals
80%
Dukagjini 2+ goals
48%
Dukagjini 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ballkani (draw refunded)
38%
Dukagjini (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballkani at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Dukagjini away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballkani attack 1.33 + Dukagjini defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Dukagjini attack 2.56 + Ballkani defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ballkani scores more
29%
level
25%
Dukagjini scores more
46%

Dukagjini at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dukagjini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Ballkani 0–3 Dukagjini

Dukagjini beat Ballkani 3-0 in Cup on April 8, 2026.