Ballard 4–0 Snohomish United: Result & Stats

Ballard

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Snohomish United

7/13/2026

USL League Two · Group Stage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ballard54%

×Draw21%

Snohomish United25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BallardExpected goals in this matchSnohomish United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.42

Ballard

2.16

Snohomish United

1.42

Ballard creates 52% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 16 away

2.88

creates per match

2.06

0.77

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Ballard

2.88

Snohomish United

2.06

allows per match

Ballard

0.77

Snohomish United

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ballard+0.00on par

Snohomish United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballard ↓

Snohomish United →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Ballard or draw

75%

Ballard or Snohomish United

79%

Draw or Snohomish United

46%

Winning margin

Ballard wins by 2+

33%

Snohomish United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ballard 1+ goals

88%

Ballard 2+ goals

63%

Ballard 3+ goals

36%

Snohomish United 1+ goals

76%

Snohomish United 2+ goals

41%

Snohomish United 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ballard (draw refunded)

68%

Snohomish United (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ballard at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

Snohomish United away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ballard attack 2.88 + Snohomish United defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.16

Snohomish United attack 2.06 + Ballard defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ballard scores more

54%

level

21%

Snohomish United scores more

25%

Ballard at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ballard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff