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Ballard vs PDX — USL League Two 2018

Ballard
Ballard
FT
7 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
PDX
PDX
6/3/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Western Conference - 5Interbay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ballard73%
×Draw15%
PDX12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballard
2.75
PDX
1.02

Ballard creates 170% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 18 away

creates per match

Ballard
2.88
PDX
1.28

allows per match

Ballard
0.77
PDX
2.61

finishing

Ballard+0.00on par
PDX+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballard ↓

PDX →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Ballard or draw
88%
Ballard or PDX
85%
Draw or PDX
27%

Winning margin

Ballard wins by 2+
52%
PDX wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ballard 1+ goals
93%
Ballard 2+ goals
75%
Ballard 3+ goals
51%
PDX 1+ goals
64%
PDX 2+ goals
27%
PDX 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Ballard (draw refunded)
86%
PDX (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballard at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

PDX away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballard attack 2.88 + PDX defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.75

PDX attack 1.28 + Ballard defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Ballard scores more
73%
level
15%
PDX scores more
12%

Ballard at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Ballard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ballard 7 – 0 PDX

Ballard beat PDX 7-0 in USL League Two on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Interbay Stadium in Seattle, Washington.