Ballard 3–0 New Mexico United II: Result & Stats

Ballard

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

New Mexico United II

7/22/2023

USL League Two · Conference - Quarter-finalsInterbay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Ballard59%

×Draw20%

New Mexico United II21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BallardExpected goals in this matchNew Mexico United II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.25

Ballard

2.22

New Mexico United II

1.25

Ballard creates 78% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 18 away

2.88

creates per match

1.72

0.77

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Ballard

2.88

New Mexico United II

1.72

allows per match

Ballard

0.77

New Mexico United II

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ballard+0.00on par

New Mexico United II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballard ↓

New Mexico United II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Ballard or draw

79%

Ballard or New Mexico United II

80%

Draw or New Mexico United II

41%

Winning margin

Ballard wins by 2+

37%

New Mexico United II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ballard 1+ goals

89%

Ballard 2+ goals

65%

Ballard 3+ goals

38%

New Mexico United II 1+ goals

71%

New Mexico United II 2+ goals

36%

New Mexico United II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ballard (draw refunded)

74%

New Mexico United II (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballard at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.77 · 43 matches

New Mexico United II away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballard attack 2.88 + New Mexico United II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.22

New Mexico United II attack 1.72 + Ballard defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ballard scores more

59%

level

20%

New Mexico United II scores more

21%

Ballard at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ballard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff