Ballard 0–0 Lane United: Result & Stats

Ballard

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lane United

6/15/2025

USL League Two · Western Conference - 10Interbay Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ballard55%

×Draw22%

Lane United22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BallardExpected goals in this matchLane United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.13

Ballard

1.91

Lane United

1.13

Ballard creates 69% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

2.70

creates per match

1.56

0.70

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Ballard

2.70

Lane United

1.56

allows per match

Ballard

0.70

Lane United

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ballard+0.00on par

Lane United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballard ↓

Lane United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ballard or draw

78%

Ballard or Lane United

78%

Draw or Lane United

45%

Winning margin

Ballard wins by 2+

32%

Lane United wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ballard 1+ goals

85%

Ballard 2+ goals

57%

Ballard 3+ goals

30%

Lane United 1+ goals

68%

Lane United 2+ goals

31%

Lane United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ballard (draw refunded)

71%

Lane United (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballard at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.70 · 20 matches

Lane United away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballard attack 2.70 + Lane United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.91

Lane United attack 1.56 + Ballard defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ballard scores more

55%

level

22%

Lane United scores more

22%

Ballard at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ballard will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff