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Balkan Botevgrad vs Slivnishki geroy — Third League - Southwest 2018

Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Slivnishki geroy
Slivnishki geroy
5/18/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 35Hristo Botev Izkustven Teren

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Balkan Botevgrad51%
×Draw24%
Slivnishki geroy25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balkan Botevgrad
1.67
Slivnishki geroy
1.08

Balkan Botevgrad creates 55% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 130 away

creates per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.89
Slivnishki geroy
1.02

allows per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.15
Slivnishki geroy
1.46

finishing

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par
Slivnishki geroy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkan Botevgrad ↓

Slivnishki geroy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Balkan Botevgrad or draw
75%
Balkan Botevgrad or Slivnishki geroy
76%
Draw or Slivnishki geroy
49%

Winning margin

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
27%
Slivnishki geroy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
81%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
50%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
23%
Slivnishki geroy 1+ goals
66%
Slivnishki geroy 2+ goals
29%
Slivnishki geroy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
67%
Slivnishki geroy (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkan Botevgrad at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 129 matches

Slivnishki geroy away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.89 + Slivnishki geroy defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.67

Slivnishki geroy attack 1.02 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Balkan Botevgrad scores more
51%
level
24%
Slivnishki geroy scores more
25%

Balkan Botevgrad at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balkan Botevgrad vs Slivnishki geroy

Balkan Botevgrad beat Slivnishki geroy 5-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Hristo Botev Izkustven Teren in Botevgrad.