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Balkan Botevgrad vs Septemvri Simitli — Third League - Southwest 2018

Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
11/25/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 19Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Balkan Botevgrad52%
×Draw24%
Septemvri Simitli24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balkan Botevgrad
1.69
Septemvri Simitli
1.05

Balkan Botevgrad creates 61% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 94 away

creates per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.89
Septemvri Simitli
0.96

allows per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.15
Septemvri Simitli
1.48

finishing

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par
Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkan Botevgrad ↓

Septemvri Simitli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Balkan Botevgrad or draw
76%
Balkan Botevgrad or Septemvri Simitli
76%
Draw or Septemvri Simitli
48%

Winning margin

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
28%
Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
82%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
50%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
24%
Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
65%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
28%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
69%
Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkan Botevgrad at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 129 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.89 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.69

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.96 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Balkan Botevgrad scores more
52%
level
24%
Septemvri Simitli scores more
24%

Balkan Botevgrad at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balkan Botevgrad vs Septemvri Simitli

Balkan Botevgrad beat Septemvri Simitli 3-2 in Third League - Southwest on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Botevgrad.