Balkan Botevgrad 1–1 Pirin Razlog: Result & Stats

Balkan Botevgrad

FT

1 – 1

Pirin Razlog

3/23/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 26Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Balkan Botevgrad53%

×Draw24%

Pirin Razlog23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Balkan BotevgradExpected goals in this matchPirin Razlog

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.06

Balkan Botevgrad

1.73

Pirin Razlog

1.06

Balkan Botevgrad creates 63% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 131 away

1.89

creates per match

0.98

1.15

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Balkan Botevgrad

1.89

Pirin Razlog

0.98

allows per match

Balkan Botevgrad

1.15

Pirin Razlog

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkan Botevgrad ↓

Pirin Razlog →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Balkan Botevgrad or draw

77%

Balkan Botevgrad or Pirin Razlog

76%

Draw or Pirin Razlog

47%

Winning margin

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+

29%

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals

82%

Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals

52%

Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals

25%

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals

65%

Pirin Razlog 2+ goals

29%

Pirin Razlog 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)

70%

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkan Botevgrad at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 129 matches

Pirin Razlog away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.89 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.73

Pirin Razlog attack 0.98 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Balkan Botevgrad scores more

53%

level

24%

Pirin Razlog scores more

23%

Balkan Botevgrad at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff