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Balkan Botevgrad vs Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi — Third League - Southwest 2018

Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
3/12/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 23Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Balkan Botevgrad60%
×Draw20%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balkan Botevgrad
2.13
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.12

Balkan Botevgrad creates 90% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 78 away

creates per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.89
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
1.09

allows per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.15
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
2.37

finishing

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkan Botevgrad ↓

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Balkan Botevgrad or draw
81%
Balkan Botevgrad or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
80%
Draw or Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi
40%

Winning margin

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
37%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
88%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
63%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
35%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 1+ goals
67%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 2+ goals
31%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
76%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkan Botevgrad at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 129 matches

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.37 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.89 + Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.13

Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi attack 1.09 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Balkan Botevgrad scores more
60%
level
20%
Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi scores more
19%

Balkan Botevgrad at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balkan Botevgrad vs Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi

Balkan Botevgrad and Nadezhda Dobroslavtsi drew 2-2 in Third League - Southwest on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Botevgrad.