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Balkan Botevgrad vs Chavdar Etropole — Third League - Southwest 2018

Balkan Botevgrad
Balkan Botevgrad
FT
3 – 2
Chavdar Etropole
Chavdar Etropole
12/1/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 17Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Balkan Botevgrad44%
×Draw24%
Chavdar Etropole32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balkan Botevgrad
1.61
Chavdar Etropole
1.35

Balkan Botevgrad creates 19% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 87 away

creates per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.89
Chavdar Etropole
1.55

allows per match

Balkan Botevgrad
1.15
Chavdar Etropole
1.34

finishing

Balkan Botevgrad+0.00on par
Chavdar Etropole+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balkan Botevgrad ↓

Chavdar Etropole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Balkan Botevgrad or draw
68%
Balkan Botevgrad or Chavdar Etropole
76%
Draw or Chavdar Etropole
56%

Winning margin

Balkan Botevgrad wins by 2+
22%
Chavdar Etropole wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Balkan Botevgrad 1+ goals
80%
Balkan Botevgrad 2+ goals
48%
Balkan Botevgrad 3+ goals
22%
Chavdar Etropole 1+ goals
74%
Chavdar Etropole 2+ goals
39%
Chavdar Etropole 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Balkan Botevgrad (draw refunded)
58%
Chavdar Etropole (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balkan Botevgrad at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.15 · 129 matches

Chavdar Etropole away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.34 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balkan Botevgrad attack 1.89 + Chavdar Etropole defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.61

Chavdar Etropole attack 1.55 + Balkan Botevgrad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Balkan Botevgrad scores more
44%
level
24%
Chavdar Etropole scores more
32%

Balkan Botevgrad at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Balkan Botevgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Balkan Botevgrad 3–2 Chavdar Etropole

Balkan Botevgrad beat Chavdar Etropole 3-2 in Third League - Southwest on December 1, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Botevgrad.