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Balingen vs Villingen II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Balingen
Balingen
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Villingen II
Villingen II
4/12/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 27BIZERBA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Balingen74%
×Draw15%
Villingen II11%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balingen
2.77
Villingen II
0.97

Balingen creates 186% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Balingen
2.41
Villingen II
0.59

allows per match

Balingen
1.35
Villingen II
3.12

finishing

Balingen+0.00on par
Villingen II+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balingen ↓

Villingen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Balingen or draw
89%
Balingen or Villingen II
85%
Draw or Villingen II
26%

Winning margin

Balingen wins by 2+
53%
Villingen II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Balingen 1+ goals
94%
Balingen 2+ goals
76%
Balingen 3+ goals
51%
Villingen II 1+ goals
62%
Villingen II 2+ goals
25%
Villingen II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Balingen (draw refunded)
87%
Villingen II (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balingen at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Villingen II away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balingen attack 2.41 + Villingen II defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.77

Villingen II attack 0.59 + Balingen defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Balingen scores more
74%
level
15%
Villingen II scores more
11%

Balingen at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Balingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Balingen 3–2 Villingen II

Balingen beat Villingen II 3-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at BIZERBA-Arena in Balingen.