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Balingen vs Fellbach — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Balingen
Balingen
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fellbach
Fellbach
S. Klostermann 90'
I. Colic 63'
A. Moutassime 21'
J. Miller 58'
F. Dreher 31'
4/25/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 29BIZERBA-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Balingen65%
×Draw18%
Fellbach18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balingen
2.58
Fellbach
1.29

Balingen creates 100% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Balingen
2.41
Fellbach
1.24

allows per match

Balingen
1.35
Fellbach
2.76

finishing

Balingen+0.00on par
Fellbach+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balingen ↓

Fellbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Balingen or draw
82%
Balingen or Fellbach
82%
Draw or Fellbach
35%

Winning margin

Balingen wins by 2+
43%
Fellbach wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Balingen 1+ goals
92%
Balingen 2+ goals
72%
Balingen 3+ goals
47%
Fellbach 1+ goals
72%
Fellbach 2+ goals
37%
Fellbach 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Balingen (draw refunded)
79%
Fellbach (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balingen at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

Fellbach away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balingen attack 2.41 + Fellbach defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.58

Fellbach attack 1.24 + Balingen defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Balingen scores more
65%
level
18%
Fellbach scores more
18%

Balingen at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Balingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
A. Moutassime
31'
F. Dreher
58'
J. Miller
63'
I. Colic
90'
S. Klostermann

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Balingen 3–2 Fellbach

Balingen beat Fellbach 3-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 25, 2025.

Goals: A. Moutassime (21'), F. Dreher (31'), J. Miller (58'), I. Colic (63'), S. Klostermann (90').

The match was played at BIZERBA-Arena in Balingen.