Bali United 1–1 Terengganu: Result & Stats

Bali United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Terengganu

10/4/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Stadion Kapten I Wayan Dipta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bali United42%

×Draw23%

Terengganu36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bali UnitedExpected goals in this matchTerengganu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.65

Bali United

1.79

Terengganu

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

2.25

creates per match

1.67

1.63

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Bali United

2.25

Terengganu

1.67

allows per match

Bali United

1.63

Terengganu

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bali United+0.00on par

Terengganu+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bali United ↓

Terengganu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Bali United or draw

64%

Bali United or Terengganu

77%

Draw or Terengganu

58%

Winning margin

Bali United wins by 2+

22%

Terengganu wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bali United 1+ goals

83%

Bali United 2+ goals

53%

Bali United 3+ goals

26%

Terengganu 1+ goals

81%

Terengganu 2+ goals

49%

Terengganu 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Bali United (draw refunded)

54%

Terengganu (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bali United at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Terengganu away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bali United attack 2.25 + Terengganu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Terengganu attack 1.67 + Bali United defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bali United scores more

42%

level

23%

Terengganu scores more

36%

Bali United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bali United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff