Bali United 5–2 Stallion: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Bali United

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Stallion

Jefferson 86'

Éber Bessa 65'

E. Dolah 51'

Mohammed Rashid 33'

A. Wijaya 23'

G. McDaniel 77'

J. Kallukaran 69'

11/29/2023

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Stadion Kapten I Wayan Dipta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bali United74%

×Draw13%

Stallion13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bali UnitedExpected goals in this matchStallion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.79

1.65

Bali United

3.79

Stallion

1.65

Bali United creates 130% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

2.25

creates per match

1.67

1.63

allows per match

5.33

creates per match

Bali United

2.25

Stallion

1.67

allows per match

Bali United

1.63

Stallion

5.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bali United+0.00on par

Stallion+0.00on par

Total goals

Over90
Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bali United ↓

Stallion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–02%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–17%

4–26%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

97%3%2.5

90%10%3.5

77%23%4.5

60%40%

Double chance

Bali United or draw

87%

Bali United or Stallion

87%

Draw or Stallion

26%

Winning margin

Bali United wins by 2+

56%

Stallion wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bali United 1+ goals

98%

Bali United 2+ goals

88%

Bali United 3+ goals

70%

Stallion 1+ goals

81%

Stallion 2+ goals

49%

Stallion 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Bali United (draw refunded)

85%

Stallion (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bali United at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Stallion away — creates 1.67, concedes 5.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bali United attack 2.25 + Stallion defence 5.33 → ÷2 → 3.79

Stallion attack 1.67 + Bali United defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Bali United scores more

74%

level

13%

Stallion scores more

13%

Bali United at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Bali United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Éber Bessa

Bali United · M

9.6

Match Events

23'

A. Wijaya↳ Éber Bessa

33'

Mohammed Rashid

51'

E. Dolah

57'

T. Infantrie← Mohammed Rashid

57'

T. Hidayat← R. Arjuna

58'

Shirmar Felongco

65'

J. Aristorenas← Y. Nomura

65'

J. Kallukaran← S. Felongco

65'

Éber Bessa

69'

G. Sunu← R. Fajrin

69'

M. Ridho← Adilson Maringá

69'

J. Kallukaran↳ K. Bonanken

73'

C. Schaffner← K. Bonanken

73'

J. Jarvis← M. Mendoza

77'

G. McDaniel↳ J. Kallukaran

81'

Jefferson← I. Spasojević

81'

J. Bedia← J. Trujillo

86'

Jefferson↳ I. Jaya

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BaliStallion

Overview

50%Possession50%

29Total Shots10

10Corners3

10Fouls8

Shots

29Total Shots10

14On Target2

9Off Target2

6Blocked6

21Inside Box5

8Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

340Total Passes352

249Accurate Passes262

73%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves10

Discipline

10Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2