Bali United 0–0 Dewa United: Result & Stats

Bali United

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dewa United

4/10/2025

Liga 1 · Round 28Stadion Kapten I Wayan Dipta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bali United47%

×Draw36%

Dewa United17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bali UnitedExpected goals in this matchDewa United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.46

Bali United

0.97

Dewa United

0.46

Bali United creates 111% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.33

creates per match

0.60

0.33

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Bali United

1.33

Dewa United

0.60

allows per match

Bali United

0.33

Dewa United

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bali United+0.00on par

Dewa United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under83
Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No77
Yes23

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bali United ↓

Dewa United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–024%

0–111%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–023%

1–111%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–12%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

76%24%1.5

42%58%2.5

17%83%3.5

6%94%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Bali United or draw

83%

Bali United or Dewa United

64%

Draw or Dewa United

53%

Winning margin

Bali United wins by 2+

18%

Dewa United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Bali United 1+ goals

62%

Bali United 2+ goals

25%

Bali United 3+ goals

7%

Dewa United 1+ goals

37%

Dewa United 2+ goals

8%

Dewa United 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Bali United (draw refunded)

73%

Dewa United (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

12%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bali United at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Dewa United away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bali United attack 1.33 + Dewa United defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Dewa United attack 0.60 + Bali United defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bali United scores more

47%

level

36%

Dewa United scores more

17%

Bali United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bali United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff