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Bali United vs Boeung Ket — AFC Cup 2018

Bali United
Bali United
CANC
10:00
Boeung Ket
Boeung Ket
6/30/2021AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bali United70%
×Draw15%
Boeung Ket15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bali United
3.13
Boeung Ket
1.44

Bali United creates 117% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bali United
2.25
Boeung Ket
1.25

allows per match

Bali United
1.63
Boeung Ket
4.00

finishing

Bali United+0.00on par
Boeung Ket+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bali United ↓

Boeung Ket →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Bali United or draw
85%
Bali United or Boeung Ket
85%
Draw or Boeung Ket
30%

Winning margin

Bali United wins by 2+
50%
Boeung Ket wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bali United 1+ goals
95%
Bali United 2+ goals
81%
Bali United 3+ goals
59%
Boeung Ket 1+ goals
76%
Boeung Ket 2+ goals
42%
Boeung Ket 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bali United (draw refunded)
82%
Boeung Ket (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bali United at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

Boeung Ket away — creates 1.25, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bali United attack 2.25 + Boeung Ket defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.13

Boeung Ket attack 1.25 + Bali United defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bali United scores more
70%
level
15%
Boeung Ket scores more
15%

Bali United at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Bali United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bali United face Boeung Ket (AFC Cup)

AFC Cup returns with Bali United hosting Boeung Ket. Match starts June 30, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.