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Balestier Khalsa vs Geylang International — Premier League 2019

Balestier Khalsa
Balestier Khalsa
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Geylang International
Geylang International
6/23/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Bishan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Balestier Khalsa37%
×Draw20%
Geylang International43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balestier Khalsa
2.02
Geylang International
2.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 81 away

creates per match

Balestier Khalsa
2.10
Geylang International
1.78

allows per match

Balestier Khalsa
2.60
Geylang International
1.93

finishing

Balestier Khalsa+0.00on par
Geylang International+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balestier Khalsa ↓

Geylang International →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Balestier Khalsa or draw
57%
Balestier Khalsa or Geylang International
80%
Draw or Geylang International
63%

Winning margin

Balestier Khalsa wins by 2+
20%
Geylang International wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Balestier Khalsa 1+ goals
87%
Balestier Khalsa 2+ goals
60%
Balestier Khalsa 3+ goals
33%
Geylang International 1+ goals
89%
Geylang International 2+ goals
64%
Geylang International 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Balestier Khalsa (draw refunded)
46%
Geylang International (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balestier Khalsa at home — creates 2.10, concedes 2.60 · 82 matches

Geylang International away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.93 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balestier Khalsa attack 2.10 + Geylang International defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.02

Geylang International attack 1.78 + Balestier Khalsa defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Balestier Khalsa scores more
37%
level
20%
Geylang International scores more
43%

Geylang International at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Geylang International will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Balestier Khalsa 2–3 Geylang International

Geylang International beat Balestier Khalsa 3-2 in Premier League on June 23, 2023.

The match was played at Bishan Stadium in Singapore.