Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Balcatta vs Fremantle City — Western Australia NPL 2026

Balcatta
Balcatta
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fremantle City
Fremantle City
6/28/2025Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 14Home Group Stadium Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Balcatta36%
×Draw24%
Fremantle City41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balcatta
1.52
Fremantle City
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 32 away

creates per match

Balcatta
1.28
Fremantle City
1.53

allows per match

Balcatta
1.73
Fremantle City
1.75

finishing

Balcatta+0.00on par
Fremantle City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balcatta ↓

Fremantle City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Balcatta or draw
59%
Balcatta or Fremantle City
76%
Draw or Fremantle City
64%

Winning margin

Balcatta wins by 2+
17%
Fremantle City wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Balcatta 1+ goals
78%
Balcatta 2+ goals
45%
Balcatta 3+ goals
20%
Fremantle City 1+ goals
80%
Fremantle City 2+ goals
48%
Fremantle City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Balcatta (draw refunded)
47%
Fremantle City (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balcatta at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.73 · 82 matches

Fremantle City away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.75 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balcatta attack 1.28 + Fremantle City defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Fremantle City attack 1.53 + Balcatta defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Balcatta scores more
36%
level
24%
Fremantle City scores more
41%

Fremantle City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fremantle City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia NPL: Balcatta 0–0 Fremantle City

Balcatta and Fremantle City drew 0-0 in Western Australia NPL on June 28, 2025.

The match was played at Home Group Stadium Field 1 in Perth.