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Balatonfüredi vs Móri SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Balatonfüredi
Balatonfüredi
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Móri SE
Móri SE
G. Toth 87'
A. Leidl 61'
B. Szabo 47'
R. Bartha 21'
8/21/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 5Balatonfüredi Városi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Balatonfüredi56%
×Draw21%
Móri SE23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balatonfüredi
2.11
Móri SE
1.27

Balatonfüredi creates 66% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Balatonfüredi
1.75
Móri SE
1.16

allows per match

Balatonfüredi
1.39
Móri SE
2.47

finishing

Balatonfüredi+0.00on par
Móri SE+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balatonfüredi ↓

Móri SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Balatonfüredi or draw
77%
Balatonfüredi or Móri SE
79%
Draw or Móri SE
44%

Winning margin

Balatonfüredi wins by 2+
34%
Móri SE wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Balatonfüredi 1+ goals
88%
Balatonfüredi 2+ goals
62%
Balatonfüredi 3+ goals
35%
Móri SE 1+ goals
72%
Móri SE 2+ goals
36%
Móri SE 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Balatonfüredi (draw refunded)
71%
Móri SE (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balatonfüredi at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

Móri SE away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balatonfüredi attack 1.75 + Móri SE defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.11

Móri SE attack 1.16 + Balatonfüredi defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Balatonfüredi scores more
56%
level
21%
Móri SE scores more
23%

Balatonfüredi at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Balatonfüredi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
R. Bartha
47'
B. Szabo
61'
A. Leidl
87'
G. Toth

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Balatonfüredi 4 – 0 Móri SE

Balatonfüredi beat Móri SE 4-0 in NB III - Southwest on August 21, 2022.

Goals: R. Bartha (21'), B. Szabo (47'), A. Leidl (61'), G. Toth (87').

The match was played at Balatonfüredi Városi Sportpálya in Balatonfüred.