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Balatonfüredi vs Csornai SE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Balatonfüredi
Balatonfüredi
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Csornai SE
Csornai SE
10/22/2022NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Nyugati - 14Balatonfüredi Városi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Balatonfüredi59%
×Draw20%
Csornai SE20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balatonfüredi
2.17
Csornai SE
1.19

Balatonfüredi creates 82% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Balatonfüredi
1.75
Csornai SE
1.00

allows per match

Balatonfüredi
1.39
Csornai SE
2.58

finishing

Balatonfüredi+0.00on par
Csornai SE+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balatonfüredi ↓

Csornai SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Balatonfüredi or draw
80%
Balatonfüredi or Csornai SE
80%
Draw or Csornai SE
41%

Winning margin

Balatonfüredi wins by 2+
37%
Csornai SE wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Balatonfüredi 1+ goals
89%
Balatonfüredi 2+ goals
64%
Balatonfüredi 3+ goals
36%
Csornai SE 1+ goals
70%
Csornai SE 2+ goals
33%
Csornai SE 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Balatonfüredi (draw refunded)
75%
Csornai SE (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balatonfüredi at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

Csornai SE away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balatonfüredi attack 1.75 + Csornai SE defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.17

Csornai SE attack 1.00 + Balatonfüredi defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Balatonfüredi scores more
59%
level
20%
Csornai SE scores more
20%

Balatonfüredi at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Balatonfüredi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balatonfüredi vs Csornai SE

Balatonfüredi and Csornai SE drew 1-1 in NB III - Southwest on October 22, 2022.

The match was played at Balatonfüredi Városi Sportpálya in Balatonfüred.