Balatonfüredi 3–1 Bicskei: Result & Stats

Balatonfüredi

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bicskei

11/26/2023

NB III - Northwest · Northwest - 17Balatonfüredi Városi Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Balatonfüredi29%

×Draw26%

Bicskei45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BalatonfürediExpected goals in this matchBicskei

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.46

Balatonfüredi

1.12

Bicskei

1.46

Bicskei creates 30% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

0.91

creates per match

1.44

1.49

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Balatonfüredi

0.91

Bicskei

1.44

allows per match

Balatonfüredi

1.49

Bicskei

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Balatonfüredi+0.00on par

Bicskei+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balatonfüredi ↓

Bicskei →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Balatonfüredi or draw

55%

Balatonfüredi or Bicskei

74%

Draw or Bicskei

71%

Winning margin

Balatonfüredi wins by 2+

11%

Bicskei wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Balatonfüredi 1+ goals

67%

Balatonfüredi 2+ goals

31%

Balatonfüredi 3+ goals

10%

Bicskei 1+ goals

77%

Bicskei 2+ goals

43%

Bicskei 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Balatonfüredi (draw refunded)

39%

Bicskei (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balatonfüredi at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

Bicskei away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balatonfüredi attack 0.91 + Bicskei defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.12

Bicskei attack 1.44 + Balatonfüredi defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Balatonfüredi scores more

29%

level

26%

Bicskei scores more

45%

Bicskei at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bicskei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff