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Balassagyarmat VSE vs Mezőkövesd II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Balassagyarmat VSE
Balassagyarmat VSE
FT
2 – 2
Mezőkövesd II
Mezőkövesd II
5/16/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 36Balassagyarmati Műfüves Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Balassagyarmat VSE68%
×Draw18%
Mezőkövesd II13%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balassagyarmat VSE
2.26
Mezőkövesd II
0.89

Balassagyarmat VSE creates 154% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

creates per match

Balassagyarmat VSE
1.36
Mezőkövesd II
0.89

allows per match

Balassagyarmat VSE
0.89
Mezőkövesd II
3.16

finishing

Balassagyarmat VSE+0.00on par
Mezőkövesd II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balassagyarmat VSE ↓

Mezőkövesd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Balassagyarmat VSE or draw
87%
Balassagyarmat VSE or Mezőkövesd II
82%
Draw or Mezőkövesd II
32%

Winning margin

Balassagyarmat VSE wins by 2+
45%
Mezőkövesd II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Balassagyarmat VSE 1+ goals
89%
Balassagyarmat VSE 2+ goals
66%
Balassagyarmat VSE 3+ goals
39%
Mezőkövesd II 1+ goals
59%
Mezőkövesd II 2+ goals
22%
Mezőkövesd II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Balassagyarmat VSE (draw refunded)
83%
Mezőkövesd II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balassagyarmat VSE at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Mezőkövesd II away — creates 0.89, concedes 3.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balassagyarmat VSE attack 1.36 + Mezőkövesd II defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.26

Mezőkövesd II attack 0.89 + Balassagyarmat VSE defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Balassagyarmat VSE scores more
68%
level
18%
Mezőkövesd II scores more
13%

Balassagyarmat VSE at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Balassagyarmat VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Balassagyarmat VSE 2–2 Mezőkövesd II

Balassagyarmat VSE and Mezőkövesd II drew 2-2 in NB III - Northeast on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Balassagyarmati Műfüves Pálya in Balassagyarmat.