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Balassagyarmat VSE vs Gyöngyös — NB III - Northeast 2019

Balassagyarmat VSE
Balassagyarmat VSE
FT
1 – 1
Gyöngyös
Gyöngyös
8/23/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 5Balassagyarmati Műfüves Pálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Balassagyarmat VSE58%
×Draw22%
Gyöngyös20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balassagyarmat VSE
1.88
Gyöngyös
1.01

Balassagyarmat VSE creates 86% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 43 away

creates per match

Balassagyarmat VSE
1.36
Gyöngyös
1.14

allows per match

Balassagyarmat VSE
0.89
Gyöngyös
2.40

finishing

Balassagyarmat VSE+0.00on par
Gyöngyös+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balassagyarmat VSE ↓

Gyöngyös →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Balassagyarmat VSE or draw
80%
Balassagyarmat VSE or Gyöngyös
78%
Draw or Gyöngyös
42%

Winning margin

Balassagyarmat VSE wins by 2+
33%
Gyöngyös wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Balassagyarmat VSE 1+ goals
85%
Balassagyarmat VSE 2+ goals
56%
Balassagyarmat VSE 3+ goals
29%
Gyöngyös 1+ goals
64%
Gyöngyös 2+ goals
27%
Gyöngyös 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Balassagyarmat VSE (draw refunded)
74%
Gyöngyös (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balassagyarmat VSE at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Gyöngyös away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balassagyarmat VSE attack 1.36 + Gyöngyös defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.88

Gyöngyös attack 1.14 + Balassagyarmat VSE defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Balassagyarmat VSE scores more
58%
level
22%
Gyöngyös scores more
20%

Balassagyarmat VSE at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Balassagyarmat VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balassagyarmat VSE vs Gyöngyös

Balassagyarmat VSE and Gyöngyös drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Balassagyarmati Műfüves Pálya in Balassagyarmat.