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Balashikha vs Znamya Noginsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Balashikha
Balashikha
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Znamya Noginsk
Znamya Noginsk
11/4/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Balashikha29%
×Draw22%
Znamya Noginsk48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balashikha
1.42
Znamya Noginsk
1.89

Znamya Noginsk creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 55 away

creates per match

Balashikha
1.06
Znamya Noginsk
1.13

allows per match

Balashikha
2.65
Znamya Noginsk
1.78

finishing

Balashikha+0.00on par
Znamya Noginsk+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balashikha ↓

Znamya Noginsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Balashikha or draw
52%
Balashikha or Znamya Noginsk
78%
Draw or Znamya Noginsk
71%

Winning margin

Balashikha wins by 2+
13%
Znamya Noginsk wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Balashikha 1+ goals
76%
Balashikha 2+ goals
41%
Balashikha 3+ goals
17%
Znamya Noginsk 1+ goals
85%
Znamya Noginsk 2+ goals
56%
Znamya Noginsk 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Balashikha (draw refunded)
37%
Znamya Noginsk (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balashikha at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Znamya Noginsk away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balashikha attack 1.06 + Znamya Noginsk defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.42

Znamya Noginsk attack 1.13 + Balashikha defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Balashikha scores more
29%
level
22%
Znamya Noginsk scores more
48%

Znamya Noginsk at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Znamya Noginsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Balashikha 1–5 Znamya Noginsk

Znamya Noginsk beat Balashikha 5-1 in Second League - Group 3 on November 4, 2022.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.