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Balashikha vs Peresvet Podolsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Balashikha
Balashikha
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
4/21/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 4Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Balashikha36%
×Draw22%
Peresvet Podolsk42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balashikha
1.79
Peresvet Podolsk
1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 42 away

creates per match

Balashikha
1.06
Peresvet Podolsk
1.24

allows per match

Balashikha
2.65
Peresvet Podolsk
2.52

finishing

Balashikha+0.00on par
Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balashikha ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Balashikha or draw
58%
Balashikha or Peresvet Podolsk
78%
Draw or Peresvet Podolsk
64%

Winning margin

Balashikha wins by 2+
19%
Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Balashikha 1+ goals
83%
Balashikha 2+ goals
53%
Balashikha 3+ goals
26%
Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
86%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
58%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Balashikha (draw refunded)
46%
Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balashikha at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balashikha attack 1.06 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.79

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.24 + Balashikha defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Balashikha scores more
36%
level
22%
Peresvet Podolsk scores more
42%

Peresvet Podolsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Peresvet Podolsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Balashikha 2–3 Peresvet Podolsk

Peresvet Podolsk beat Balashikha 3-2 in Second League - Group 3 on April 21, 2023.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.