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Balashikha vs Kolomna — Second League - Group 3 2020

Balashikha
Balashikha
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kolomna
Kolomna
8/10/2022Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Balashikha42%
×Draw22%
Kolomna36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balashikha
1.84
Kolomna
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 55 away

creates per match

Balashikha
1.06
Kolomna
0.76

allows per match

Balashikha
2.65
Kolomna
2.62

finishing

Balashikha+0.00on par
Kolomna+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balashikha ↓

Kolomna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Balashikha or draw
64%
Balashikha or Kolomna
78%
Draw or Kolomna
58%

Winning margin

Balashikha wins by 2+
22%
Kolomna wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Balashikha 1+ goals
84%
Balashikha 2+ goals
55%
Balashikha 3+ goals
28%
Kolomna 1+ goals
82%
Kolomna 2+ goals
51%
Kolomna 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Balashikha (draw refunded)
53%
Kolomna (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balashikha at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Kolomna away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.62 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balashikha attack 1.06 + Kolomna defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.84

Kolomna attack 0.76 + Balashikha defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Balashikha scores more
42%
level
22%
Kolomna scores more
36%

Balashikha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Balashikha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Balashikha 0–1 Kolomna

Kolomna beat Balashikha 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on August 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Znamya in Noginsk.