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Balashikha vs FK Spartak Tambov — Second League - Group 3 2020

Balashikha
Balashikha
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FK Spartak Tambov
FK Spartak Tambov
4/7/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 2Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Balashikha20%
×Draw21%
FK Spartak Tambov59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balashikha
1.09
FK Spartak Tambov
2.03

FK Spartak Tambov creates 86% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 63 away

creates per match

Balashikha
1.06
FK Spartak Tambov
1.41

allows per match

Balashikha
2.65
FK Spartak Tambov
1.13

finishing

Balashikha+0.00on par
FK Spartak Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balashikha ↓

FK Spartak Tambov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Balashikha or draw
41%
Balashikha or FK Spartak Tambov
79%
Draw or FK Spartak Tambov
80%

Winning margin

Balashikha wins by 2+
7%
FK Spartak Tambov wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Balashikha 1+ goals
66%
Balashikha 2+ goals
30%
Balashikha 3+ goals
10%
FK Spartak Tambov 1+ goals
87%
FK Spartak Tambov 2+ goals
60%
FK Spartak Tambov 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Balashikha (draw refunded)
25%
FK Spartak Tambov (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balashikha at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

FK Spartak Tambov away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.13 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balashikha attack 1.06 + FK Spartak Tambov defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.09

FK Spartak Tambov attack 1.41 + Balashikha defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Balashikha scores more
20%
level
21%
FK Spartak Tambov scores more
59%

FK Spartak Tambov at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FK Spartak Tambov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Balashikha vs FK Spartak Tambov

Balashikha beat FK Spartak Tambov 4-2 in Second League - Group 3 on April 7, 2023.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.