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Balashikha vs Arsenal Tula II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Balashikha
Balashikha
FT
1 – 8
HT: 1 – 4
Arsenal Tula II
Arsenal Tula II
6/10/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 12Sportkompleks Znamja Truda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Balashikha27%
×Draw22%
Arsenal Tula II50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Balashikha
1.37
Arsenal Tula II
1.92

Arsenal Tula II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 77 away

creates per match

Balashikha
1.06
Arsenal Tula II
1.19

allows per match

Balashikha
2.65
Arsenal Tula II
1.68

finishing

Balashikha+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Balashikha ↓

Arsenal Tula II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Balashikha or draw
50%
Balashikha or Arsenal Tula II
78%
Draw or Arsenal Tula II
73%

Winning margin

Balashikha wins by 2+
12%
Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Balashikha 1+ goals
75%
Balashikha 2+ goals
40%
Balashikha 3+ goals
16%
Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals
85%
Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals
57%
Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Balashikha (draw refunded)
35%
Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Balashikha at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Arsenal Tula II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Balashikha attack 1.06 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.37

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.19 + Balashikha defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Balashikha scores more
27%
level
22%
Arsenal Tula II scores more
50%

Arsenal Tula II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Arsenal Tula II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Balashikha 1–8 Arsenal Tula II

Arsenal Tula II beat Balashikha 8-1 in Second League - Group 3 on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Sportkompleks Znamja Truda in Orekhovo-Zuyevo.