Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2–2 Zamalek SC

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Zamalek SC

8/17/2024

Premier League · Round 34WE Al-Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla25%

×Draw25%

Zamalek SC50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baladiyyat Al MehallaExpected goals in this matchZamalek SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.61

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

1.06

Zamalek SC

1.61

Zamalek SC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 125 away

1.18

creates per match

1.51

1.71

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

1.18

Zamalek SC

1.51

allows per match

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla

1.71

Zamalek SC

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla+0.00on par

Zamalek SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla ↓

Zamalek SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla or draw

50%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla or Zamalek SC

75%

Draw or Zamalek SC

75%

Winning margin

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla wins by 2+

9%

Zamalek SC wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 1+ goals

65%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 2+ goals

29%

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla 3+ goals

9%

Zamalek SC 1+ goals

80%

Zamalek SC 2+ goals

48%

Zamalek SC 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla (draw refunded)

33%

Zamalek SC (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

Zamalek SC away — creates 1.51, concedes 0.94 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla attack 1.18 + Zamalek SC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Zamalek SC attack 1.51 + Baladiyyat Al Mehalla defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla scores more

25%

level

25%

Zamalek SC scores more

50%

Zamalek SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zamalek SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff