Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bala Azul vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Bala Azul
Bala Azul
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
4/17/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 32Estadio Playa Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bala Azul37%
×Draw29%
UCAM Murcia II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bala Azul
1.13
UCAM Murcia II
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 110 away

creates per match

Bala Azul
1.12
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

allows per match

Bala Azul
0.80
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

finishing

Bala Azul+0.00on par
UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bala Azul ↓

UCAM Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bala Azul or draw
66%
Bala Azul or UCAM Murcia II
71%
Draw or UCAM Murcia II
63%

Winning margin

Bala Azul wins by 2+
15%
UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bala Azul 1+ goals
68%
Bala Azul 2+ goals
31%
Bala Azul 3+ goals
11%
UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
65%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
29%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bala Azul (draw refunded)
52%
UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bala Azul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bala Azul attack 1.12 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + Bala Azul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bala Azul scores more
37%
level
29%
UCAM Murcia II scores more
34%

Bala Azul at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bala Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bala Azul 1–2 UCAM Murcia II

UCAM Murcia II beat Bala Azul 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 17, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Playa Sol in Puerto de Mazarrón.