Bala Azul 2–0 Real Murcia II: Result & Stats

Bala Azul

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Real Murcia II

4/5/2026

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 29Complejo Deportivo Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bala Azul38%

×Draw29%

Real Murcia II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bala AzulExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.02

Bala Azul

1.14

Real Murcia II

1.02

Bala Azul creates 12% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 111 away

1.12

creates per match

1.24

0.80

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Bala Azul

1.12

Real Murcia II

1.24

allows per match

Bala Azul

0.80

Real Murcia II

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bala Azul+0.00on par

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bala Azul ↓

Real Murcia II →

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bala Azul or draw

68%

Bala Azul or Real Murcia II

71%

Draw or Real Murcia II

62%

Winning margin

Bala Azul wins by 2+

16%

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bala Azul 1+ goals

68%

Bala Azul 2+ goals

32%

Bala Azul 3+ goals

11%

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

64%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

27%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Bala Azul (draw refunded)

54%

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bala Azul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bala Azul attack 1.12 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + Bala Azul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bala Azul scores more

38%

level

29%

Real Murcia II scores more

32%

Bala Azul at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bala Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bala Azul 2–0 Real Murcia II

Bala Azul beat Real Murcia II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 5, 2026.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Mazarrón in Mazarrón.

Bala Azul vs Real Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bala Azul 2–0 Real Murcia II