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Bala Azul vs Racing Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Bala Azul
Bala Azul
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Racing Murcia
Racing Murcia
2/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 22Estadio Playa Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bala Azul38%
×Draw30%
Racing Murcia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bala Azul
1.09
Racing Murcia
0.96

Bala Azul creates 14% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 62 away

creates per match

Bala Azul
1.12
Racing Murcia
1.13

allows per match

Bala Azul
0.80
Racing Murcia
1.06

finishing

Bala Azul+0.00on par
Racing Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bala Azul ↓

Racing Murcia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Bala Azul or draw
69%
Bala Azul or Racing Murcia
70%
Draw or Racing Murcia
62%

Winning margin

Bala Azul wins by 2+
15%
Racing Murcia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bala Azul 1+ goals
66%
Bala Azul 2+ goals
30%
Bala Azul 3+ goals
10%
Racing Murcia 1+ goals
62%
Racing Murcia 2+ goals
25%
Racing Murcia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bala Azul (draw refunded)
55%
Racing Murcia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bala Azul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Racing Murcia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bala Azul attack 1.12 + Racing Murcia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Racing Murcia attack 1.13 + Bala Azul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bala Azul scores more
38%
level
30%
Racing Murcia scores more
31%

Bala Azul at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bala Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bala Azul 1–1 Racing Murcia

Bala Azul and Racing Murcia drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Playa Sol in Puerto de Mazarrón.