Bala Azul 1–0 Huércal Overa: Result & Stats

Bala Azul

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Huércal Overa

4/24/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 33Estadio Playa Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Bala Azul51%

×Draw27%

Huércal Overa21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bala AzulExpected goals in this matchHuércal Overa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.80

Bala Azul

1.40

Huércal Overa

0.80

Bala Azul creates 75% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 47 away

1.12

creates per match

0.79

0.80

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Bala Azul

1.12

Huércal Overa

0.79

allows per match

Bala Azul

0.80

Huércal Overa

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bala Azul+0.00on par

Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bala Azul ↓

Huércal Overa →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bala Azul or draw

79%

Bala Azul or Huércal Overa

73%

Draw or Huércal Overa

49%

Winning margin

Bala Azul wins by 2+

25%

Huércal Overa wins by 2+

Team goals

Bala Azul 1+ goals

75%

Bala Azul 2+ goals

41%

Bala Azul 3+ goals

17%

Huércal Overa 1+ goals

55%

Huércal Overa 2+ goals

19%

Huércal Overa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Bala Azul (draw refunded)

70%

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bala Azul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bala Azul attack 1.12 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + Bala Azul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bala Azul scores more

51%

level

27%

Huércal Overa scores more

21%

Bala Azul at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bala Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bala Azul 1–0 Huércal Overa

Bala Azul beat Huércal Overa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Playa Sol in Puerto de Mazarrón.

Bala Azul vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: Bala Azul 1–0 Huércal Overa