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Bala Azul vs Deportiva Minera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Bala Azul
Bala Azul
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Deportiva Minera
Deportiva Minera
9/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2Estadio Playa Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bala Azul46%
×Draw28%
Deportiva Minera26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bala Azul
1.34
Deportiva Minera
0.94

Bala Azul creates 43% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 78 away

creates per match

Bala Azul
1.12
Deportiva Minera
1.08

allows per match

Bala Azul
0.80
Deportiva Minera
1.56

finishing

Bala Azul+0.00on par
Deportiva Minera+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bala Azul ↓

Deportiva Minera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bala Azul or draw
74%
Bala Azul or Deportiva Minera
72%
Draw or Deportiva Minera
54%

Winning margin

Bala Azul wins by 2+
22%
Deportiva Minera wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bala Azul 1+ goals
74%
Bala Azul 2+ goals
39%
Bala Azul 3+ goals
15%
Deportiva Minera 1+ goals
61%
Deportiva Minera 2+ goals
24%
Deportiva Minera 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bala Azul (draw refunded)
64%
Deportiva Minera (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bala Azul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Deportiva Minera away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.56 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bala Azul attack 1.12 + Deportiva Minera defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.34

Deportiva Minera attack 1.08 + Bala Azul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bala Azul scores more
46%
level
28%
Deportiva Minera scores more
26%

Bala Azul at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bala Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bala Azul vs Deportiva Minera

Bala Azul beat Deportiva Minera 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Playa Sol in Puerto de Mazarrón.